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Predictions 2019-2023

Sogeti Labs
January 21, 2019

When in the glimmering between two years it is tradition predict the “near” future. Since predicting only one year ahead is a bit boring, I am going to start with my yearly 5(+)-years prediction.

Predictions 2019-2023

My predictions will not be of the type “2019 will be the year of AI and Ethics” or “2019 will be the year of autonomous cars”.

So here goes my list of predictions:

  1. 2019 will be the year of a Mondial financial crisis larger than the 2008 financial crisis.
  2. 2020 will be the year of the financial crisis combined with big social unrest aka in the US and EU forced the resignation of leaders of government.
  3. 2021 will be the year of financial, civil crisis and the start of World War 3.
  4. 2021-2022 will be the rist of the new Gandhi or Martin Luther King. I will call this the MLK 2.0
  5. 2023 will be the year of the start of the new and global enlightenment.

Action list

Here are some thoughts on how to work with these predictions from the point of view of an IT company.

  1. Hire technically skilled people and make sure the ecosystem is focused on controlling technology.
  2. Don’t use rational sales and (IT) implementation techniques since the era of facts and logical reasoning is over.
  3. Combine (1, tech is all) and (2, logical reasoning is gone) in your company culture. Focus on being the best IT-craftsman and know that this is a very small niche and you need more to be able to implement the craft at companies.
  4. Be agile and verify since nobody can predict how a crisis is evolving, be creative and bold. Protect your people while doing this.
  5. Invest in psychologists, philosophers, and people that can improve the wellbeing of your people. A financial crisis, civil crisis, and war will bring enormous psychological stress to people. Being the one company that keeps its cool will create room for making a big impact.
  6. Knowing which waves are coming upon us, gives us the opportunity to keep calm and keep zen.

Background to the predictions

Prediction one

2019 will see a financial crisis that dwarves the 2008 crisis.

The arguments for this prediction are:

  1. The pattern of high/low markets are usually 7 years apart (Wikipedia, usfunds, usfunds, Twitter, The Guardian, CNBC, The Cconomist ). 2018 is a high (bear) market (Wikipedia). we see that financials are selling all their assets (housing, stock) in Q4 of 2018 due to the fact it is the end of the year, but also since it should be the end of the bear market. Of course, trends are not that great of an indicator.
  2. The Brexit is imminent in 2019. If there is a hard Brexit (so article 50 is effective without a new agreement between EU and UK) then the UK will go bust (no food, no medicine, no workers) and the EU will lose a lot of revenue and needs to re-route many of its supply-chains (suppliers and buyers). Finding the new balance in EU and the down-go of the UK will create a financial crisis. When there is a soft-Brexit then civil unrest will come and potential a smaller movement to find a new balance. When there will be an “undo” of the article 50 then the UK will have a civil uprising that will spread to the other EU countries, igniting the fuel behind the national populism and movements like #gilets jaunes. Either way, things will get interesting.
  3. Tradewar: The US is with Trump as president a large economical power that is unpredictable in its movement. Many trade deals, trade tariffs, and even military actions are unstable and unpredictable. The financial market tends not to like this unpredictability.
  4. Some canaries in the coal mine are warning for the upcoming big crash. Like Nassim Nicholas Taleb stating in a Bloomberg interview “The World Is More Fragile Today Than in 2007“.
    Or Willem Middelkoop with his timeline.

Prediction two

In 2020 the financial crisis will evolve into global civil unrest.

Where the current society is developing more and more from a hierarchical and dialogue based society to a network society.

We as a people are connected everywhere via technology, social media, and ease of transportation. The predicted global village is now a reality. This is the reason we as a people do not trust the “elite” anymore since we can Google everything, or are in a bubble with our tribe that sees the world differently.

The fast world widens gaps between people

The fast-moving world in terms of information and innovation widens the gap between the people that can process these transformations and the people that can’t. To counter this detachment people are looking for identity by selecting a common foe and/or by selecting a tribe that provides an identity. This longing for a tribe is not a rational quest.

The need for empathy over rationality

Daniel Pink has written the book “a whole new mind” on why the age of logic and rationality is over and the right-brain (emotions, empathy, creativity) is the most important skill the coming years. ( Book review on Medium, Interview of Daniel Pink by Operah)

The need for stories over rationality

On the Youtube channel of Wisecrack, there is also a nice explanation of the need for a story that is not based on rational. This video is called “Kanye and The End of Reality – Wisecrack Edition

The need for tribes in a complex global village

The wisecrack video is easier to digest than the many books (for example Homo Deus, The Pinch, stupid white man ) on this subject, or the many articles from “the economist”, “der spiegel”, “de correspondent” etc. But the storyline is the same: the current world is complex and volatile and that creates the need for people to unite and religion is not there anymore to fulfill this role.

The network society circle creating a gap in societies.

The flip-side of the same coin

It is my conclusion that extremism, populism, nationalism, burn-out and depression are the negative sides of the coin of the current open, transparent, fast-moving, highly innovative global village that is our world.

This dark side of the coin is also called VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous). VUCA combined with the need for a tribe and a leader bring me to prediction 3.

Prediction three

2021 there will be a third world war.

This is a more complex argumentation because WW3 would be the result of many developments.

A tribe needs a leader and an enemy

The need for an identity that is provided by a tribe also asks for a big and common enemy and a leader that unites against the enemy. Everywhere in the world (EU, US, Brazil, Venezuela, etc), people are gathering enmass behind populism and nationalism.

Hate for others, blind following of a strong leader in a complex and unpredictable world are ingredients for an accident blowing stuff up and pull us into a new world war.

When you listen to politic podcasts like “Talking Politics” (EN) or “Boekenstein & de Wijk” (NL) you will recognize the analysis.

Most countries in the world are unstable (Venezuela, Brazil, Spain, Italy, France, USA, Germany, Hungary, Russia, Iran, Turkey, etc).

Conflicts around Oil, Financial Markets, Climate etc are rising.

The world is a big unstable atom, a heap of dry grass waiting for a spark to ignite it all.

But not all is only dark.

Prediction four

In 2021-2022 the rise of MLK 2.0

Dark side & Light side

In everything, there is a dark side and a light side. So where there is a need for a strong leader that units on emotion as a tribe of people, there is also room for a leader that preaches love and enlightenment.

“Darkness cannot drive out darkness: only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that.”

― Martin Luther King Jr., A Testament of Hope: The Essential Writings and Speeches

Summarizing the analysis of the dark side of the Network Society, and analysis of room for the good.

This is where my hope is. We as a world will see a big crisis and a big war coming. And this pendulum will create room for our next enlightenment, the question only is.. Who is going to step up and direct the people of the whole world to our new future?

History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes. What we see is that various people that have a story of hope get big traction. Obama, Piketty, Harari, and in every country there are local versions of these preachers of hope. We only have to wait and see what event will unite us as inhabitants of the global village we call earth.


About the author

SogetiLabs gathers distinguished technology leaders from around the Sogeti world. It is an initiative explaining not how IT works, but what IT means for business.


    8 thoughts on “Predictions 2019-2023

    1. Hi. If ok to comment here. As id like to say with everything relating to the world of internet this is based with in the beast system. And also the elites bigger plan on to everyone.
      By which everyone around the globe are using internet in many ways with out realising the bigger picture.
      As it’s to make people addicted to this and to our smart phones.
      There’s going be a more higher technology As the years go on which is relating to your there plans.
      Right now we can all see how People are buying and selling this is based with doing this online, the use of your bank cards, and smart phones. To bring in globally cashless! And to see how much major control on to the people. This will get more and more worse. Most worrying is with how the people are all accepting with this. It’s all steps based on the mark in revelation and the image of beast. Than you.

      1. It is WWW = 666
        And it will be completed the crown with the ID2020 or similar when the Corona “pandemic” has played out we are forced to a full digital currency and the 5G is fully established then You will see the beast system and unfortunately it will affect the comming generations and forward too because main population is brainwashed so it is incredible to believe it is possible.
        Me too btw.

    2. WW3 Would not be before 2023 it will be short starting April and all will be over in October leaving the surviving with problems like cancer, hunger and other diseases for months to come.
      2023 ads up 666 3 score
      The number on the Skulls & Bones are 223
      The Skulls & Bones are head of the visible elite with blodlines back to the pharohs that control the world today.
      Beside many higher satanic organisations and the closest normal people who have not studied and marked themselves the word about how satan will lie and deceive know about the Free Masons.
      Created to manipulate local societies in social business and political ways possible so that no one will have the money or the brain to stop them who are not initiated.
      See revelation of mother goddess full version on Youtube to be better informed.

    3. The immortal ruler will be from India. INDIA have a very big role in Uniting the people of earth. If you look back in history. Hindus have had wars only to protect its culture but we didn’t attacked other civilisations . Hinduism is the first religion on earth. Its full of mysteries. Russia and America will be united against radical Islamic forces in Europe and India will lead. Only job of Hindus is to unite the world. Hope you find out more about it on Google and predictions by nastradamus

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